Thursday, August 31, 2023

In the dispute over the South China Sea, the Philippines takes on Beijing head-on

On the island of Palawan in the Philippines, a fisherman named Benjo Atay says, "We're scared of China" as the wind and rain smash his small bamboo boat. "We're scared of China."

He yells orders at his youthful crew, the majority of whom are members of his own family, while they pull on ropes in order to leave the harbor. They are already covered in sea water and sweat, but it is not the climate that causes them concern. They are afraid of something else.

He claims that Chinese ships are following closely behind us and circling us. "When we are anchored, they will force us to leave," the captain said. They intended to eliminate us as a threat.

A territorial dispute between the Philippines and China's capital city of Beijing is becoming increasingly contentious in the South China Sea.

It is one of several nations that has lodged a complaint against a map that was released by China this week. On the map, China reaffirmed its sovereignty over more than 90 percent of the ocean.

Manila's voice, which in the past might have been described as a gentle whimpering, has suddenly soared to a scream, empowered by support from Washington and its friends. In the past, Manila may have gently whined at China's moves to obstruct its ships.

"We are worried, but that does not daunt us," said Jonathan E. Malaya, the assistant director general of the Philippines National Security Council. "We are worried about rising tensions, but that does not daunt us."

In recent months, the Philippines has provided the US access to important military sites, hosted the largest-ever joint military drills between the two countries, and consistently called out Beijing's aggression in the South China Sea. In addition, the Philippines has hosted the largest-ever joint military drills between the two nations. In spite of the fact that Philippine and Chinese coastguards are playing a cat-and-mouse game on the contested waters, the Philippine government has revealed plans to educate fishermen to protect their area out at sea.

The meaning is unmistakable. "If you are a Filipino, whether in government or [the] private sector, regardless of your politics, defending and making excuses for China's aggressive behavior should deem you unpatriotic, and a traitor to the Philippines and to our people," Jay Tarriela, a spokesperson for the coastguard in the West Philippine Sea, wrote on social media. Tarriela is responsible for communicating with the public regarding the situation in the West Philippine Sea.

Not only do China's claims compete with those of the Philippines, but also those of Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Brunei. China's claims cover the entirety of the South China Sea. These are not brand new, but their volume and complexity are both increasing.

The most recent episode focuses on the inaccessible Ayungin shoal, which is located more than 620 miles (998 kilometers) away from the southernmost shore of mainland China and approximately 190 kilometers away from Palawan island.

Over the course of the past half year, Chinese vessels have employed water cannons and lasers to prevent the Philippine coastguard from reaching too close to the shoal. The boats were transporting water and food supplies that were absolutely necessary to the soldiers who were stationed on a decaying warship called the Sierra Madre, which Manila had purposefully wrecked on a shoal within their territorial waters. To try to maintain a presence on the shoal required a maneuver that was both resolute and premeditated.

In 2016, the Philippines prevailed against China in an international court and were awarded this land as a result of the ruling that Beijing's expansive claim to sovereignty over the majority of the South China Sea lacked a legal basis.

Access to the shoal also implies access to the nearby Reed Bank, which has considerable quantities of oil and natural gas. These are rich fishing grounds, and access to the shoal also means access to the Reed Bank.

The Philippines, seemingly unfazed by the power that China possesses, made another attempt to convey supplies to its troops stationed in the Sierra Madre; this time, they claimed that their mission was successful.

Mr. Malaya characterized the situation as "a true David versus Goliath issue." "But just like David, we will continue to pound and double down on the need to protect the resources which are important for the future of the Philippines," the speaker said.

The idyllic islands caught in the crosshairs of the United States and China The cat-and-mouse game with China in the highly contested sea
However, Beijing does not perceive it in such a light. It asserts that the Sierra Madre is acting in a manner inconsistent with its sovereignty. The use of a water cannon by the Chinese coastguard on the vessel belonging to the Filipinos was described as "professional and restrained" in a statement released by the Chinese coastguard.

Manila claimed that it attempted to use a hotline it had established with China to alleviate the situation, but China did not answer the phone.

Mr. Malaya stated, "We would like to resolve this issue," but he confessed that "progress is slow and there is, at the present time, no meeting of the minds."

President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos has moved closer to Washington in comparison to his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, who aimed to cultivate relations with China rather than criticize the country's policies.

Additionally, he has made public each dispute with Beijing on the South China Sea. If the Philippine coastguard has difficulty resupplying the ship that is grounded on Ayungin shoal, the situation will be broadcast on television. Importantly, the United States are not overly distant.

A statement made earlier this week by the commander of the United States Navy's Seventh Fleet stated that China's "aggressive behavior" in the South China Sea has to be addressed and checked.

In light of "shared challenges" in the region, Vice Admiral Karl Thomas gave the assurance that the United States will support Manila. "My forces are out here for a reason," he told the news agency Reuters. You have to confront those individuals who are, in my opinion, functioning in a gray area. You have to push back, you have to sail and operate when they keep taking a little bit more and more from you and pushing you.

In response, Beijing stated that the United States was "projecting power" by spreading strife through lies and distortions of the truth.

Some nations in this region are still unsure of whether or not they can trust the United States' message of support because Washington's previous statements regarding Beijing's activities in the South China Sea were vague. A change in management may not be the only thing that brings about an attitude shift.

However, for the time being, the United States is showing that it will be there for its partners in Asia. In addition, the United States is not the only country that has been observed in the South China Sea.

The United States of America, Japan, and Australia participated in joint drills with the Philippines last week. The exercises were termed as a "significant moment of defense" by Tokyo's ambassador to Manila. The largest-ever military exercises ever performed between the Philippines and Australia included a simulated beach landing as well as air assault manoeuvres near the South China Sea. These exercises were also participated in by the armed forces of Australia and the Philippines.

There is no other place on Earth where so many nations come so close to a competing force, which gives rise to concerns that a miscalculation will occur during these conflicts at sea.

The city of Manila runs the risk of the conflict becoming even more serious if it accepts assistance from its allies. On the other hand, that is a risk that the fisherman of Palawan might not be ready to take.

Romeo Brawner, the Chief of Staff of the Philippine Army, recently stated that they intend to enlist fishermen as reservists and provide them with training. Larry Hugo, the regional officer for the Kalayaan Palawan Farmers and Fisherfolks Association, laughed when the BBC asked him if he knew many fisherman who were prepared to join such a militia. Larry Hugo was responding to the question.

"No, no, we don't want to join," he responded. "No, no." "It is very unlikely that China will discover us. Fishermen from this area will be the target of this operation. The Chinese government is taking a more belligerent stance. They've also seen an increase in population."

According to Mr. Malaya, who works for the National Security Council of the Philippines, the Chinese are also operating hundreds of fishing vessels near the Ayungin shoal, which are, in essence, militia vessels.

"They are Chinese power instruments, and they are a component of the Chinese military's overall infrastructure. They have the purpose of intimidating and harassing our fishermen who work in the area, he went on to say.

Beijing, on the other hand, refutes the existence of such a force.

Benjo Atay claims that he is not prepared to even take the danger of sailing in those waters, let alone engage in combat there, regardless of whether it occurs or not.

Since he was 14 years old, he has been fishing close to Ayungin shoal. It was given its name after a species of fish native to the Philippines that is on the verge of extinction and is well-known among low-income families.

There was a time when he and other fishermen from the dispersed islands adjacent to Palawan were forced to sail in close proximity to Chinese boats in the same waters for an extended period of time.

Mr. Atay is now in his 30s, and at this point in his life, his worry for the safety of the crew exceeds the allure of a huge catch.

"I don't believe that we will revisit that location. We are in a state of extreme dread. It's possible that they'll fire their water cannon. Naturally, all we have is a boat made out of wood. Going back to that place gives us a great deal of anxiety.

The turquoise waters and white sands of Palawan's beaches are a picture-perfect combination. However, if you do not fish in this area, you will not be able to get something to eat.

The inhabitants of this island have been carving out villages from the rocky bays and sandy coasts for many centuries. These communities consist of single-room cottages with corrugated iron roofs and hammocks strung across the kitchen for infants to sleep in.

As a result of the storm, most of the boats are unable to move, therefore some people are forced to wade into the shallows while carrying nets and buckets in order to harvest shellfish. Others are making use of the time by fixing up their boats and their nets.

The children enjoy a day off from school to compete against one another on a makeshift basketball court that is surrounded by boats that have been turned over and are resting. When asked if they want to be fishers, the response is a loud yes, despite the fact that several of them have stated that they want to be professional basketball players instead.

Mr. Atay claims that it becomes more challenging with each passing year. "How could we possibly perform our jobs well while we're afraid? We are unable to concentrate on fishing, so we simply remain on the island, which is the only place where Filipinos are permitted.

During the time that these territorial conflicts are ongoing, these groups remain resolute in keeping a low profile. But their future could be determined by any of these outcomes.

Once upon a time, that future was determined by the wind and the tide. At this point, everything will depend on the determination of the leaders of the world.

Tuesday, August 29, 2023

Terry Gou is a Taiwanese iPhone billionaire with aspirations of becoming the country's president

Terry Gou, a 72-year-old millionaire and the creator of Foxconn, which is responsible for manufacturing iPhones, is the newest candidate to enter the contest for the presidency of Taiwan.

Mr. Gou is a magnetic entrepreneur who rose from humble beginnings to amass a fortune, a large amount of cash, and significant name recognition. According to observers in Taipei, Mr. Gou would have a decent chance of winning the election if he was the only candidate running against the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which is currently in power. However, he is not.

Instead, the opposition vote in the presidential election that will take place in January 2024 will be split three ways due to his candidacy.

When there are already two opposition candidates fighting to overthrow the incumbent party in a presidential system that awards all of the seats to the winner, adding a third candidate to the mix is probably not going to make the process any simpler.

The situation is a textbook illustration of the "law of holes," which states that if you find yourself in a hole from which it is difficult to escape, the first step you should take is to cease digging. It would appear like Taiwan's opposition is digging its own electoral grave at this point.

On Monday, Mr. Guo made his candidacy for an election that will have significant repercussions well beyond the borders of Taiwan public, and this is exactly what happened. An election for a new president will take place on the self-governing island in the midst of escalating threats from Beijing and an increasingly militarized region.

Mr. Gou, much like another charismatic billionaire on the other side of the Pacific, initially tried to have himself nominated as a candidate for Taiwan's most prominent center-right party, the old nationalist KMT (Kuomintang). In contrast to his success in the United States, he was unsuccessful.

As a result of the KMT's selection of another candidate, Mr. Gou resigned from the party. However, Mr. Gou's predicament is not only dependent on the KMT.

The Taiwan People's Party (TPP) is another opposition party in Taiwan, and Ko Wen-je, another popular populist, serves as the party's leader. Mr. Ko served as the mayor of Taipei city in the past, and he is now in second place in the polls. The younger generation of Taiwanese voters is very favorable to him.

It's not just his money and successful business career that make Mr. Gou such an attractive prospect. It is based on his job experience both in China and with the country.

Foxconn, also known as Hon Hai industries, is the largest electronics manufacturer in the world since it was the first company to pioneer the idea of merging the engineering know-how of Taiwan with the trained labor of China. Mr. Gou established massive industrial campuses in the south of China in the 1980s and 1990s, and he hired tens of thousands of young Chinese people to work there.

Because the strategy was so effective, he was finally able to convince Apple to contract out a significant portion of the production of MacBooks and iPhones to Foxconn. Because of this, Foxconn became the most successful company in Taiwan, and Mr. Gou became one of the wealthiest businesspeople in the country.

Now, Mr. Gou thinks that he can use the experience he gained investing and working in China to safeguard Taiwan's safety. Terry Gou has stated that one of his goals is to keep Taiwan from "becoming another Ukraine." In his announcement that he was running for office, he stated that he would lead Taiwan "back from the abyss of war with China."

He is not the only one who views the danger posed by China as becoming more severe as time goes on. Over the course of the past year, Beijing has significantly ramped up its military actions in the region surrounding the island.

The People's Liberation Army (PLA) published a professionally produced propaganda video the previous week, in which it showed Chinese troops engaging in what appeared to be training for an invasion of the beaches of Taiwan.

Saturday, August 26, 2023

The Wagner mercenaries are required to take an oath of loyalty to Russia and Putin

Employees of Wagner and those working for other Russian private military contractors have been asked by President Vladimir Putin to swear allegiance to the Russian state and sign an oath in this regard.

The edict is binding on everyone who takes part in military operations in Ukraine, provides assistance to the armed forces, or serves in formations responsible for territorial defense.

On Friday, he put his signature to the decree, which went into force right away.

It comes just two days after it was widely believed that the leaders of Wagner were killed in an aircraft accident.

In a dramatic turn of events on Saturday, a section of Wagner known as Rusich, which is associated with the far right, announced that it will cease its military actions in Ukraine.

Rusich accused Russia's foreign ministry of failing to protect a founding member of the group, Yan Petrovsky. Petrovsky was arrested in Finland for visa breaches and is facing extradition to Ukraine. The accusation was made in a post that Rusich made on Telegram.

Analysts are of the opinion that Mr. Putin's decision is part of an effort to regain his control in the wake of the rebellion led by Wagner in June.

According to Natia Seskuria, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute in London, who spoke with the BBC, Vladimir Putin "wants to have tighter control on Wagner in order to ensure that he won't be facing another crisis in the future."

The directive was issued during a time when the Wagner mercenaries do not have a clear leader. This is because a plane that was believed to be transporting Yevgeny Prigozhin and other leaders crashed on Wednesday, taking the lives of all 10 persons on board.

The pledge includes a promise to strictly follow the instructions of commanders, and it is described as a step toward building the spiritual and moral foundations of Russia's defense in the regulation.

"It is a concealed message to military intelligence to find and prosecute Wagner fighters," Petro Burkovskyi, the chairman of the Democratic Initiatives Foundation, a think tank based in Ukraine, told the BBC. Burkovskyi was speaking to the BBC on behalf of the Democratic Initiatives Foundation.

In addition, he makes it plain that this is also a message to the combatants, saying that they must either take the pledge and keep their weapons or disarm themselves. You must obey me or you will be sent to jail.

In the weeks leading up to the failed revolt in Prigozhin in June, the Russian defense ministry offered mercenary groups the deadline of July 1 to sign contracts with the Russian army.

Prigozhin did not sign the document because he did not want Wagner to be subject to the authority of the ministry. It was the first public blow that Mr. Putin dealt to his long-term ally Prigozhin when he gave his support to the ministry's contract arrangement.

The argument became more heated, which ultimately resulted in Prigozhin's rebellion.

However, given that there is no clear leader among the Wagner fighters, what impact would the decree have on them?

Mr. Burkovskyi is of the opinion that due to their extensive military experience, they are valuable assets for the Russian army.

"They selected Wagner because Wagner provided them with preferential treatment, free from the bureaucracy of the massive Russian army." If Putin gives them orders to receive preferential treatment, I don't think they will care where, to whom, or for whom they fight as long as they get what they want.

Ms. Seskuria is of the opinion that there are devoted Prigozhin followers who will not take the oath, despite the fact that the edict might have an effect in the short term.

"This can potentially create problems for Putin in a longer term perspective," he argues. "This is something that we should keep in mind."

In the meantime, officials have stated that Russian air defenses were successful in preventing drone assaults on the Moscow and Belgorod districts on Saturday morning.

According to the governor of the region, four persons were injured when shelling occurred in the Belgorod region that borders Ukraine.

The government of Ukraine practically never confirms in public that it was responsible for assaults within Russian territory.

According to the regional governor of Kharkiv, Russia shelled a Ukrainian village close to the town of Kupiansk in the country's north-eastern region, causing the deaths of two persons and the injury of another.

Wednesday, August 23, 2023

Yevgeny Prigozhin: Wagner defied Putin and now its leader may be dead

When Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner troops launched their insurrection two months ago, Vladimir Putin made his feelings more than clear. He called it "treachery" and a "stab in the back" of Russia. He promised that the perpetrators would be punished.

So there was incredulity in Russia when they were not. When a deal was cut between Mr Prigozhin and the Kremlin to end the mutiny; when all the charges against the Wagner founder and his fighters were dropped, despite the fact that Russian servicemen had been killed during the murky but brief insurrection.

It made President Putin look weak.

Commenting on the agreed compromise (ending the mutiny in exchange for immunity from prosecution) one Russian newspaper commented: "This kind of compromise is normally made with political opponents. Never with criminals and terrorists. Does that mean we should view Mr Prigozhin now as a political figure?"

Suddenly things look rather different.

Exactly two months on, Mr Prigozhin is presumed dead after his private jet crashed and exploded in a field. Wagner commander Dmitry Utkin was on the same jet.

The Russian elite will shed few tears over Mr Prigozhin's reported demise. That goes for Russia's military leadership, whom Mr Prigozhin had publicly and vocally condemned and whom he demanded be sacked. The Wagner boss claimed that the so-called "March of Justice" (his euphemism for the insurrection) had not targeted the Kremlin but had instead been directed at Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and the Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov.

In reality, the Wagner mutiny had been a direct challenge to President Putin's authority and a humiliating 24 hours for the Kremlin. Mr Putin himself pointed out that the Russian state had been financing Wagner. Money had clearly not bought loyalty.

If this was an act of revenge by those in power, that sends two clear messages to Mr Prigozhin's loyalists and to anyone else in Russia who may have been contemplating armed resistance:

Don't try

Look what happens to those who do.

That means that President Putin could emerge from these dramatic events stronger domestically.

But what if Mr Prigozhin becomes a martyr? What if those who had pledged loyalty to him - and who are well-trained fighters - call for their own acts of revenge?

Grey Zone, a Telegram channel linked to Wagner, blamed Mr Prigozhin's reported death on "Russian traitors".

It did not clarify who it believed those traitors were and what Wagner's response would be.

If this crash was foul play, that will come as little surprise to many in Russia. Ever since the mutiny there has been feverish speculation about Mr Prigozhin's fate, about whether his actions really would be forgiven.

He must have known that. Yet, in recent weeks, as he jetted around on his private plane he clearly did not view air travel as a danger. Perhaps he believed that he was too powerful, too crucial a figure in today's Russia to be taken out?

Tuesday, August 22, 2023

First foreign flight for North Korean airline after the collapse of the Soviet Union

The state airline of North Korea has successfully completed its first overseas flight since the epidemic began.

Flight JS151, operated by Air Koryo, took off from Pyongyang early on Tuesday morning and arrived at Beijing Capital Airport at 9:16 local time, which corresponds to 01:16 GMT, according to data provided by the real-time flight tracking service Flightradar24.

It is unknown who was on board the JS151 or how many people it was transporting at this time.

According to Koryo Tours, a travel firm, the route between Pyongyang and Beijing has been reopened so that North Koreans can travel back home.

Flightradar24 reports that flight JS151 was operated by a Tupolev Tu-204 aircraft, which has the capacity to accommodate a maximum of 210 passengers.

It is unknown how many people were on board the return flight, JS152, which was scheduled to depart from Beijing for Pyongyang at 13:05 local time.

According to Kyodo News, the check-in booth for Air Koryo at the Beijing airport was completely crowded with passengers who were wearing North Korean flag pins on their chests and dragging luggage carts full of belongings.

More than three and a half years after they were halted because to Covid border controls, Air Koryo flights to Beijing were authorized to resume on Monday, according to the Chinese foreign ministry, which claimed it has cleared the restart of the flights.

It was only lately that Pyongyang restarted some limited international passenger transit.

This past week, a group of North Korean athletes made their way across the border into China on their route to compete in the global championships for Taekwondo in Kazakhstan, which is located nearby.

The capital of North Korea was also visited by delegations from Russia and China in July to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the armistice that ended the Korean War. These delegations were the first known foreign organizations to be invited to the country since the year 2020.

Japan is planning to release cleaned water within the next 48 hours in response to the nuclear tragedy at Fukushima

In spite of protests from its neighbors, Japan is going ahead with plans to begin releasing radioactive water that has been treated from the tsunami-hit Fukushima nuclear facility into the Pacific Ocean on Thursday.

The decision was reached some weeks after the nuclear inspector of the UN gave its approval to the scheme.

Since the facility was wrecked by the tsunami in 2011, around 1.34 million metric tons of water have accumulated. This amount of water is sufficient to fill 500 pools of Olympic size.

Following filtration and diluting, the water will be made available to the public after a period of thirty years.

After a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida stated that the authorities will make a request for the plant's operator to "promptly prepare" for the disposal to begin on August 24 if the weather and sea conditions are suitable.

After Mr. Kishida's visit to the plant on Sunday, rumors began to circulate that the release was about to take place.

The plant is located on the east coast of the country, roughly 220 kilometers (137 miles) north-east of the capital city of Tokyo. According to the government, releasing the water is a vital step in the lengthy and expensive process of decommissioning the plant, which is located on the east coast.

Since more than a decade ago, Japan has been collecting and storing the contaminated water in tanks, but there is a limited amount of room in the tanks.

In 2011, a tsunami that was brought on by an earthquake measuring 9.0 on the Richter scale flooded three reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. Since the nuclear accident at Chernobyl in 1986, this event is considered to be the worst nuclear tragedy in the world.

Soon after that, the authorities established an exclusion zone, which continued to be increased as radiation spilled from the facility. As a result, almost 150,000 people were had to evacuate the region.

Concern and rage have been expressed regarding the Fukushima nuclear waste plan.
Since the plan to release water from the plant was approved by the Japanese government two years ago, it has created worry across Asia and the Pacific.

In July, it was given the go light by the nuclear watchdog of the United Nations, which came to the conclusion that the effects on both people and the environment would be insignificant.

However, a large number of people, notably fisherman in the area, are concerned that dumping the treated water will have a negative impact on their means of subsistence.

In addition, on Tuesday, a large group of demonstrators gathered in front of the official residence of the prime minister in Tokyo. They demanded that the government put a halt to the release.

Operators of the plant Even though Tepco has been filtering the water to remove more than 60 radioactive compounds, the water will not be completely free of radiation since it will still contain radioactive isotopes of hydrogen and carbon that cannot be easily removed from water. These are radioactive isotopes of tritium and carbon-14.

However, because to the extremely low levels of radiation that they release, specialists agree that they pose no threat to human health unless they are taken in very large quantities.

According to Professor Jim Smith, who teaches environmental science at the University of Portsmouth, "as long as the discharge is carried out as planned, radiation doses to people will be vanishingly small - more than a thousand times less than doses we all get from natural radiation every year." This statement was made by Professor Jim Smith.

The tainted water is also being released into a large body of water, namely the Pacific Ocean, which is another concern brought up by the experts.

According to Professor Gerry Thomas, who teaches molecular pathology at Imperial College London, "Anything released from the site will therefore be massively diluted" because of the surrounding environment.

Presented for your consideration: the frantic struggle to avert 2011's catastrophe

The city of Tokyo has stated in the past that the water that is going to be released into the Pacific Ocean, which has been mixed with saltwater, contains levels of tritium and carbon 14 that are acceptable for human consumption.

It is common practice for nuclear power stations all around the world to discharge waste water that contains levels of tritium that are higher than those found in the water that was treated at Fukushima.

However, the idea has been met with outrage from the countries that are nearby, with China being the country that has voiced its opposition the most. It made the accusation that Japan was using the water as its "private sewer."

On Tuesday, the spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Wang Wenbin, repeated Beijing's protest to the proposal and said that China would take "necessary measures to safeguard the marine environment, food safety, and public health."

According to Mr. Wang, Japan is "putting its own self-interest over the long-term well-being of all humankind" by allowing waste water to be released into the environment.

Hong Kong announced that it would "immediately activate" import restrictions on a number of food products manufactured in Japan.

Fish imports from the Fukushima region have already been prohibited in South Korea and China respectively.

However, the government of South Korea has given its approval to the scheme and has accused the demonstrators of engaging in scaremongering.

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